Grocery remains one of the more reliable bright spots in retail real estate, and the next wave of store openings shows where the momentum is building: value, discount and necessity-based formats.

According to an industry report, U.S. consumers spent more than $915 billion on groceries in 2025, a 3% increase from the prior year and 21% higher than in 2020. That spending growth is now translating directly into real estate demand, with grocers expected to add nearly 21 million square feet of new store space in 2026.

The expansion is not limited to traditional supermarkets. Dollar General, which has steadily increased its grocery offerings, is expected to lead the pack with roughly 450 new stores this year. Aldi plans to open about 180 locations, while fresh-format grocers such as Whole Foods and Sprouts are each targeting 25 to 40 new stores. BJ’s and Target are also expected to add about 30 stores each, while Walmart is focusing new growth largely in high-population Sun Belt markets such as Florida and Texas.

The trend says a lot about consumer behavior. While restaurant spending rebounded after the pandemic, higher menu prices have made eating at home more attractive again. CBRE noted that restaurant prices have risen nearly 60% over the past decade, compared with about 30% for grocery prices. For households watching expenses, that gap matters.

Physical stores are also proving that they still matter. Online grocery ordering has become more common, but much of the sector’s growth is still happening inside the store. Reports cited Placer.ai data showing increased grocery foot traffic across formats in 2025, with fresh-format stores posting especially strong gains. Value grocers such as Aldi, Lidl and Trader Joe’s also saw higher shopper visits, suggesting that lower- and middle-income consumers are helping drive the category’s growth.

For landlords, grocery anchors remain especially valuable because they generate repeat trips. Stores are increasingly doubling as fulfillment points for buy-online-pick-up-in-store orders, and those visits often lead to additional purchases. Reports also cited ICSC findings that grocery-anchored centers draw roughly three times as many annual customers as comparable unanchored centers and can support 15% to 25% higher rents for nearby inline tenants.

That explains why investors continue to favor the category. Grocery-anchored centers are viewed as one of the most defensive retail formats because they combine daily-needs traffic, resilient tenant demand and stronger leasing leverage for owners.

The takeaway for retail real estate is clear: grocery is no longer just an anchor use. It is becoming a traffic strategy, an investment thesis and a leasing advantage. As shoppers continue to prioritize value and convenience, discount and value-oriented grocers are likely to remain among the most aggressive users of retail space in 2026.