About $875 billion in commercial mortgages is set to mature in 2026, representing 17 percent of the roughly $5 trillion in outstanding commercial mortgage balances held by lenders and investors. That total is down from the $957 billion that came due in 2025, suggesting the market may be starting to move beyond the heaviest part of the recent maturity cycle.
Even with that year-over-year decline, the volume of upcoming maturities remains substantial and will continue to shape refinancing and lending activity. The shift points to a market that is still under pressure, but one that may be finding more stability as borrowers, lenders and investors adjust to current conditions.
The data indicates that 2025 marked a turning point after several years of rising scheduled maturities. Longer-term interest rates did not move much during that period, but lenders also appeared less willing to rely on simple extensions. As a result, borrowers increasingly faced the need to refinance or restructure loans rather than push maturities further out.
With another $652 billion in maturities scheduled for 2027, the pipeline of loans coming due is expected to support continued lending volume. At the same time, improving property values could help revive transaction activity across the commercial real estate market. Together, those factors are expected to support stronger origination levels, even as the Federal Reserve appears to be nearing the end of its current rate-cutting cycle.
Maturity exposure is not evenly spread across property types. Hotel loans have the largest share coming due in 2026, with 30 percent of balances scheduled to mature. Industrial follows at 23 percent, while office and health-care loans each sit at notable levels as well. Multifamily faces a lower share of maturities by comparison, with 13 percent due next year.
The figures also vary widely by lender category. Depositories are set to see $396 billion in maturities in 2026, equal to 21 percent of their outstanding balances. CMBS, CLOs and other ABS account for $200 billion, or 25 percent. Credit companies, warehouse lenders and other lenders face an even larger concentration, with 29 percent of their balances maturing next year. By contrast, only 4 percent of multifamily and health-care mortgage balances held or guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, FHA and Ginnie Mae are scheduled to mature in 2026. Life insurance companies will have $76 billion, or 10 percent of their mortgage balances, come due.
The numbers suggest that while the maturity wave is still a major factor for commercial real estate finance, the worst of the buildup may be passing. What happens next will likely depend on asset performance, property values and how flexible lenders remain as borrowers work through refinancing needs.
Source: CPE